Robert Scoble

Google's profits are gonna be stagnant for several quarters.

Why? Advertising is tapped out and we're moving to mobile where advertising just doesn't work all that well. Google's innovations (Google Glass, Driverless Cars, Contextual OS's) won't bear fruit for at least four more quarters (and the big structural changes won't happen for years -- I sense that Larry Page is moving Google from an advertising business to a transactional one).

Why move to a transactional business? Because advertising is going to be a VERY HARD business model to make work in mobile.

If Google can move to contextual and transactional it will win, and win big, but the next four to seven quarters will be bumpy.

That said, Google is best positioned for the next age and is the most innovative big company, by far, that I'm watching right now (heck, it's more innovative than most startups I track).

Being an investor right now is tough. If you had $1,000 which one would you invest in: Google or Microsoft?

For me the answer is easy: Google all the way.

I think the news is going to get worse for Microsoft. Xbox1 is the one product I'm watching. If it doesn't do well, then I'm not sure what Microsoft will do to stem the bad news as the Age of Context arrives over the next 18 months.

Google is about to announce stuff that really will take away Microsoft's position in mobile. I feel for my friends at Microsoft, but they are gonna get squeezed in a way that hasn't happened to Microsoft in its life.

Who is winning the social login war? Facebook is, so far. This will be interesting to watch over time, I bet Google and Facebook take more and more share over time. Does this matter?

It does in the Age of Context. The logins we choose are the brands we trust to represent us to others. That's who will get the data about us to bring us new, automatic, features (think of things like Google Now).

It looks like I was wrong about this story. I didn't think our officials would roll back spying programs after watching what happened to gun legislation.

Snowden deserves a prize for the change he enacted in our government. It shows that one person can, indeed, change the world.

It looks like I was wrong about this story. I didn't think our officials would roll back spying programs after watching what happened to gun legislation.

Snowden deserves a prize for the change he enacted in our government. It shows that one person can, indeed, change the world.